Stephen Bauman wrote:
There are many factors that influence service capacity. Some of these are the signal system, train scheduling, dwell time, T/O behavior, C/R behavior, train acceleration, train braking, etc.
Your methodology has not sought to isolate any of these factors.
As far as I can tell from a close reading, Stephen Bauman's hasn't either. Or perhaps more accurately, he has made assumptions about the ability to disaggregate these factors that have no demonstrated correlation to reality. He also assumes a probability distribution that has not been proved to exist.
Of course, this means a change in the current signal system. However, I'd expect that such a change could be implemented for $250K.
Again, there is no evidence for this.