Well, Doug,
Policing is now bring done in New York under a diffrent theory than it had been done since about the '60s or so. The '70s-'80s model (oversimplified) said that the role of the police is essentially to clean up after crime rather attempt deterrence, because broad social and demographic issues are what drive crime.
I would point out that c.1990 one of the major proponents of that theory was projecting that, if we thought crime then was bad then, wait 10 years when, according to his projections of the number of individuals in crime prone groups (esp. teenagers and young adults) the crime rate in 2000 would make the crime rate in 1990 (2200 murders p.a. in NY, remember?) look like a picnic.
But we shall see. In a bit over a year, two at most, we'll have a new Mayor in NYC. If he/she goes back to the police model used through Dinkins (incl. ignoring QOL, petty crime, low-level drug dealers, failing to frisk those apprehended for such crime, not holding local commanders responsible for crime in their precincts, etc.) and the crime rate does not rise, you may be right.